Table 2. Chain order selection using Bayes Information Criterion (BIC). A higher-order chain provides more information than a lower-order one if ΔBIC > 9.2 (Guttorp 1995).

Location  
Impact
  
Chain order
  
BIC
  
ΔBIC
Doubtful Sound  
Control
  
0
  
-1346.78
  
...
Doubtful Sound  
Control
  
1
  
-1214.01
  
132.77
Doubtful Sound  
Impact
  
0
  
-359.02
  
...
Doubtful Sound  
Impact
  
1
  
-337.32
  
21.70
Milford Sound  
Control
  
0
  
-567.40
  
...
Milford Sound  
Control
  
1
  
-475.12
  
92.28
Milford Sound  
Impact
  
0
  
-277.23
  
...
Milford Sound  
Impact
  
1
  
-258.24
  
18.99