Fig. 2. The numbers of internally displaced persons (IDPs) in Uganda, largely resulting from the conflict in northern Uganda with the Lord’s Resistance Army, is strongly correlated with catch of Nile perch by Ugandan fishers (contemporaneous r = 0.75; one-year lag r = 0.89; both p < 0.05). This observation is in line with our theoretical priors and has guided our case study. Catch data are from FAO Fishstat (2015). The IDP data are from the Norwegian Refugee Council and Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre (2012). Data from 1998 are interpolated from 1997-1999.