Table 1. Preliminary assessment of the behavior of the coupled model for Quintana Roo. Model output represents average end points from Monte Carlo simulations of 10 runs (each covering an 11-year simulation period from 1994–2005). Socioeconomic variables refer to the sum of fish and lobster catches for the four municipalities (Cancun, Cozumel, Riviera Maya, and Costa Maya), whereas biophysical variables are minimum–maximum ranges across municipalities. Empirical values for fish and lobster catches are estimates based on fisheries statistics for Quintana Roo in 2005 (INEGI 2005). Empirical values for biophysical variables are based on minimum–maximum ranges from ecological surveys in 2004–2005 (García-Salgado et al. 2006).

Model output Empirical values
Socioeconomic variables
Fish catch (t) 740–1390 1500
Lobster catch (t) 150–190 200
Biophysical variables
Coral cover (%) 9–30 8–40
Algal cover (%) 50–80 0–57
Herbivorous fish biomass (g/m2) 10–50 9–54
Piscivorous fish biomass (g/m2) 0–17 0–31