Table 2. Main differences between scenarios attending to drivers, aspects, and social actors. The final column refers to the current situation of the Doņana social-ecological system, to allow the scenarios to be compared with the present day.

    Scenario 1:
Doñana – Global Knowledge
Scenario 2:
Doñana Trademark
Scenario 3:
Arid Doñana
Scenario 4: Adaptive Doñana
– Wet and Creative
Present situation of the Doñana social-ecological system
Technology Great improvement; desalination plants; green energy; efficient techniques in agriculture Without great improvement; only some to maximize agriculture production Improvement after climate change due to the rise in investments in green energy General improvement; technologies for water efficiency; green energy; alternative public transport Some advances, such as solar panels and efficient methods for irrigation, are being installed, but slowly
Participation Important for management; linked with technologies of information and communication (TICs) No real participation Not mentioned Very important aspect for management; improved through practice and education Becoming more important in Doñana due to initiatives such as the second plan for sustainable development
Climate change Few effects; prevention via technology and efficiency Big effects in medium term Major effects over the short term Few effects People show concern for this theme and value the climate regulation ecosystem service
Migration Immigration due to the good social and ecological situations Emigration due to the bad social and ecological situations Emigration due to unemployment after tourism decreases Immigration controlled at the origin through cooperation and development Immigration is growing fast in the region, attracted by agriculture
Water Better use due to new technologies Higher demand and more squandering; contaminated by agriculture Scarce due to the fall in precipitation and the increase in temperature; use prioritized to the most important uses Management core; technology improvements for efficient use Scarce; great demand; management; is a critical aspect because interest groups demand it (farmers for agriculture and conservationists for nature)
Biodiversity Conserved due to research improvements and investments Falls due to unsustainable uses; “fortified” Natural Protected Areas Decreases due to climate change effects; more protective of the norm Conserved through a mosaic of landscapes Tourist and NGO mainly see the importance of endangered flag species
Agriculture Respectful and more productive due to technologic advances Intensive farming; monoculture; transgenic; unsustainable Return to dry-farmed crops due to droughts Agro-forestry mosaic turning to traditional uses helped by new technologies Important economic sector that employs many workers; slowly incorporating ecological methods
Tourism Sustainable and quality tourism Mass tourism Great fall due to the effects of climate change Alternative, quality, and sustainable tourism Beach and religious tourism attract more visitors than nature tourism
Mobility Low-impact roads Too many roads that fragment the landscape No more infrastructure creation due to a decrease in tourism Increase in public transportation and dismantling of some roads High demand for new infrastructures for tourism ; scarce public transport
Social actors
Businesses and enterprises Middle companies and sustainable industrial policies Big, powerful multinationals; no environmental concerns Bad situation due to tourism and agriculture decrease, and to an increase in unemployment; more environmental concern Small, local companies; cooperatives; search for long-term benefits; more environmental concern
ENGOs Participate in management and research Overwhelmed by the power of companies Protagonists after climate change effects; empowerment and diversification of activities Were not mentioned ENGO with great importance in the creation of Doñana's National Park; confronted with the most developmentalist sectors
Administration Benefitting from research; simplified institutions; search for sustainability Loses power to multinationals Turn towards sustainability after the effects of climate change; emergency integrative plans Great institutional simplification; sustainability is the first aim Multiple institutions coexisting in the area
Scientists Research in green energy and efficient water use; calculation of Natural Protected Area carrying capacity Oriented to maximize agriculture production Increase in activity after the effects of climate change; construction of agriculture research centers; increase in social science research Research on social ecological systems, green energy, and efficient water use Focus on biological sciences research; local people perceive them as disconnected with population and local needs
Local population Strengthening of traditional local identity; social cohesion Rootlessness due to identity loss; no cohesion; emigration; counterculture movements grow Construction of a new identity to cope with the effects of climate change Strengthened traditional local identity; social cohesion; higher education and culture; more creativity Elder people and those linked to agriculture tend to see the protected area as a threat to their interest; people linked to tourism see the protected area as an opportunity for development