Table 1. Summary of scenarios developed to quantify relative effect of different drivers on the value of cattle herd for private and communal herders in southern Botswana. The key references used to parameterize the scenarios are: (1) Christensen et al. 2007; (2) Quan et al. 1994, Reed and Dougill 2008; (3) Dougill et al. 1999 ; (4) Adams et al. 1999 ; (5) Adams 2001; (6) FAO 2006, Perrings and Stern 2000.

Scenario name Description Lower estimates Upper estimates
Climate change This scenario determines what effect climate change has on the value of communal and private cattle herds and is based on IPCC rainfall projections and historical analysis of rainfall variability. 40% interannual variability and no long-term change in rainfall.1 40% interannual variability and a 0.1% p.a. decline in average rainfall.1
Environmental management This scenario determines to what extent best agricultural management practices might reduce the effects of bush encroachment and is based on the ecological literature on the effects of bush encroachment. Improved management leads to increases of 1% p.a. for a period of 10 years on private land, whereas improved management on communal land leads to increases of 0.1% p.a. for a period of 20 years². Bush encroachment leads to a 0.05 % p.a. decline over the full model run period for both private and communal herders.³
Land tenure policy This scenario simulates the effects of a governmental policy that slows the rate at which communal land is privatized and is based on the effects of similar policy in neighboring countries. A ‘slow conversion’ rate from communal to private ownership of 0.1% p.a. based on Botswana’s relatively high proportion of “tribal” lands compared with neighboring countries.4 0.5% p.a. of communal land is privatized based on high rates of private land holdings in neighboring countries.5
Market conditions This scenario determines how changes in the price of cattle may affect the value of communal and private cattle herds and is based on long term cattle price trends. 0.05% p. a. increase in the price of cattle could occur from greater market access or higher market prices (either internationally or from greater national control / price guarantees to pastoralists). 10% annual variability in price but no long-term changes because historic analysis of price does not show significant rises or falls in adjusted cattle price over past 40 years.6