Fig. 3. Four scenarios for Makanya’s future. The figure gives an impressionistic illustration of how the conditions in Makanya vary in the four scenarios. Central to the figure is one of Makanya’s crossroads, which is a strong symbol of change. “Agricultural advance” describes a future dominated by a rapid market-oriented agricultural development. In “Managing on the margins,” the dry climate makes farming-based livelihoods difficult and people have to struggle to provide for their families. “Community cohesion” centers on collective action and small-scale improvements of current farming systems. “Industry imperial” describes a future where smallholder farming loses importance as people start working in industries and factories, and where the traditional lifestyle increasingly becomes abandoned. Illustration: C. Bollner/