Appendix. Including climate change in the SAR calculations as applied in this paper.

     In the main text, three different simple algorithms for assessing the biodiversity loss of climate change using the available information of the IMAGE 2.2 model are proposed. These are (equations are given in the main text):

  1. Biodiversity adapts on the basis of the adaptation speed in IMAGE; some of the biodiversity in the areas where potential vegetation and actual vegetation are out of phase is lost
  2. Biodiversity does not adapt, causing all changes from the original potential vegetation to be marked as losses;
  3. Biodiversity adapts immediately to climate change, which means that only where the total biome area of potential vegetation declines, will biodiversity loss occur;

Figure A1.1 shows the results of each of these methods in terms of equilibrium biodiversity loss for the TechnoGarden (TG) (relatively weak climate change) and Order from Strength (OS) (strong climate change) scenarios in 2050 and 2100 compared to 1995.

The default method (M1) gives results within the two extreme assumptions of no adaptation (M2) and immediate full adaptation (M3). For the strong climate change scenario (OS), 2050 losses range from 2% with full adaptation to 4% without adaptation. By 2100, the differences between these methods become more pronounced: 3% with adaptation and 10% without adaptation. Based on their definitions (but subject to the limitations of the overall method) assuming no adaptation or full adaptation are clearly unlikely extremes. The numbers for the default method (M1) are 3% and slightly more than 6%. A discussion of the interpretation of these results vis-à-vis other studies that estimate loss of plant diversity as a result of climate change is given in the discussion section of the main text.

Figure A1.1. Biodiversity loss at equilibrium in 2050 and 2100 for the TechnoGarden (TG) and Order from Strength (OS) Scenario three different methods explored for assessing the impacts of climate change. M1 represents our default method, while M2 assumes no adaptation and M3 full adaptation.