Fig. 3. Scatter plot illustrating the relationship between model predictions and livelihood impact scores for 19 individual case studies. Model predictions represent the summed probability values for the “Small increase” and “Large increase” states inferred for the nodes representing the change in assets resulting from commercialization. Data for the different asset types were pooled together for this analysis, but separate model predictions were made for each individual NTFP case study. Livelihood impact scores represent independent measures of the impact of NTFP commercialization on livelihoods assessed using the CIFOR indicators. Indicator scores were summed individually for each NTFP case study, pooling together data for both household- and community-level indicators.