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Modeling urban expansion policy scenarios using an agent-based approach for Guangzhou Metropolitan Region of China

Guangjin Tian, State Key Laboratory of Water Environment Simulation, School of Environment, Beijing Normal University
Zhi Qiao, State Key Laboratory of Water Environment Simulation, School of Environment, Beijing Normal University

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5751/ES-06909-190352

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Abstract

Policy makers and the human decision processes of urban planning have an impact on urban expansion. The behaviors and decision modes of regional authority, real estate developer, resident, and farmer agents and their interactions can be simulated by the analytical hierarchy process (AHP) method. The driving factors are regressed with urban dynamics instead of static land-use types. Agents’ behaviors and decision modes have an impact on the urban dynamic pattern by adjusting parameter weights. We integrate an agent-based model) (ABM) with AHP to investigate a complex decision-making process and future urban dynamic processes. Three policy scenarios for baseline development, rapid development, and green land protection have been applied to predict the future development patterns of the Guangzhou metropolitan region. A future policy scenario analysis can help policy makers to understand the possible results. These individuals can adjust their policies and decisions according to their different objectives.

Key words

agent-based model; analytical hierarchy process; Guangzhou; policy makers; scenario analysis

Copyright © 2014 by the author(s). Published here under license by The Resilience Alliance. This article  is under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License.  You may share and adapt the work for noncommercial purposes provided the original author and source are credited, you indicate whether any changes were made, and you include a link to the license.

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Ecology and Society. ISSN: 1708-3087