Table 3. Multiscale scenario “clumping risks in a neoliberal world” combining future states of growth and convergence (context) and clumping risks (the Visp region).


Context: growth and convergence
Global Trends: A1B
Climate: A1B
Population CH: 9.5 Mio
Migration within CH: Migration to Agglomeration
Accessibility of mountain regions: High Increase
Tourism Development: Exploitive
Natural Resource Management: Exploitive
Environmental Awareness: Technical Solutions
Consumption Patterns: Global Production
Economic Growth: High Increase
Agricultural Markets: Decline in prices
Wood Prices : Stable Prices
Energy Consumption: Stable Consumption
Technol. Innovation in Agriculture: High Innovation Rate
Energy Policy: New Priorities
Nature Conservation : Reduction
Climate Policy: Low Emission Reduction Aims
Spat Planning Policy: Laisser-Faire
Agricultural Policy: Liberalization
 
The Visp region: clumping risks
Medium local consequences of climate change
High environmental quality
Increase in regionally specific construction and settlement quality
Low level protection policy
Moderate restrictive planning and zoning activities
Extension of nature protection measures
No support of enterprises for local goods
Decrease of agriculture
Difficult management of forests
Status quo of renewables
Structural change caused by climate change and low investment
Expansion of the destination management
Shrinkage of the second sector (industry)
Lower budget
Loss of locational advantages
Large out-migration (brain drain; more than 15%)
Reduced quality of life
Decreasing attractiveness for residents
Medium importance of local identity
High degree of coherence among municipalities
 
Storyline: clumping risks in a neoliberal world
The region is hit hard by several detrimental national and international developments. The globally unabated climate change results in Switzerland in temperature changes, with increases of +2.2° in winter and +2.3° in summer and a precipitation of -1.4 mm in winter and -8.1 mm in summer, results to the melting of glaciers by 90%, reduces the frequency of snow-secure weather conditions and increases drought and frequency of fires (+17%) in summer. In addition, the massive damages done on the mountain railways and the high competition among skiing regions lead to the decrease of gains in tourism. Because of the liberalization of the federal agricultural policy and the falling prices of agricultural products, the employment rate and the used area in agriculture shrink. Lonza follows the national trend and abandons the location of Visp to move to lowland agglomerations. Consequently, many well-educated people emigrate from the region. Moreover, forestry is strongly affected by the dry climatic conditions in summer. These disadvantageous developments amount to a “clumping risk.“ To counteract these negative conditions, the region tries to jointly invest in top destination tourism and its marketing. This strategy, howver, partly fails. Tax deficits lead to a decrease in the financial margin of the communities and affect the infrastructure for basic services, culture and sports as well as the overall quality of life. The population of the region faces the consequences of these detrimental developments. Cooperation between communities is high, but it is not enough to solve the problem.