Table 4. Future scenarios, developed by consensus in workshops.


Smith’s: future identities
Global Water Innovation and Ecotourism Hub Integrated Water Future Worse than Dry
Summary The community integrates its agricultural, industrial, and environmental sectors to become a world leader in the use, manufacture, management, export, RandD, and consultation services for “smart” water systems. Smith is transformed into a community whose culture and practices reflect a deeply integrated use of water. The community prepares for greater water scarcity by increasing farming efficiency, investing in RandD to maintain its agricultural and horticultural industries, and expands value-added food processing and manufacturing. The community also begins to cope with its aging population by expanding its aged-care sector. The community experiences a rapid, disruptive change in the availability of water, which leads to collapse of rice production, declining economy and population, closure of local businesses, and farm consolidation. The need for nonfarming sources of income increases the importance of ecotourism.
Type of change required
 
 
Adaptive maintenance
 
 
Adaptive maintenance
 
 
Adaptive maintenance
 
 
Jones’: future identities
Business as usual Horticultural Innovation and Renewable Energy Hub Diversity and Cultural/Eco-Tourism Hub
Summary Jones’ farmers seek to maintain productivity and output in the context of increasing water scarcity by increasing the size of farms and making more extensive use of “smart” irrigation systems. The modest expansion of full-time work opportunities associated with bigger farms and the attendant demand for housing helps maintain the community’s stocks of all capitals. The need to maintain productivity in the context of water scarcity, reduce carbon emissions, and decrease dependence on fossil fuels leads to the expanded use of irrigation technologies, and the creation of a Table Grape Research Center and solar energy infrastructure. This increases the demand for more skilled workers and infrastructure, which increases all capitals. The combination of a long history of multi-culturalism, strong leadership, and need for nonfarm sources of income leads to the creation of an Aboriginal Cultural Center, a Diversity Center, and an asylum-seeker processing center that helps successful asylum seekers integrate into society. This increases the demand for skilled workers and infrastructure, which increases all capitals.
Type of change required Adaptive maintenance Adaptive maintenance and transformation Transformation