**Fig. 4.** Average modeled coral cover in each of the four Quintana Roo municipalities under hypothetical scenarios for increasing tourist visits. These scenarios assume increases in annual tourist visits for the region by a factor of between one (i.e., no increase beyond the number of visits in 2005) and five (i.e., five times 2005 visits) over a 10-year period. Mean coral cover refers to the average cover for each municipality after 10 years. Error bars represent 95% confidence intervals from the 10 runs of the Monte Carlo simulation.