Table 2. Explained variance at barrio (submunicipality) and municipio levels for best models of deforestation and reforestation during two time periods (1977-1991 and 1991-2000) and explained variance in models where individual explanatory variables are removed from best model. The decrease in R² relative to the best model indicates the importance of that variable in predicting observed transitions. The best model does not necessarily have the best R² at a particular scale because model selection is based on the overall agreement between data and the model; in other words, the ability to simultaneously explain variance at all levels of a multilevel model.
Deforestation Reforestation
1977-1991 1991-2000 1977-1991 1991-2000
Barrio Municipio Barrio Municipio Barrio Municipio Barrio Municipio
Best Model 0.53 0.64 0.45 0.24 0.64 0.49 0.63 0.64
Variable removed
Life Zones 0.52 0.49 0.45 0.23 0.60 0.22 0.62 0.63
Slope 0.50 0.62 0.44 0.21 0.63 0.38 0.63 0.63
Agricultural Capacity 0.53 0.65 0.46 0.23 0.63 0.50 0.62 0.64
Forest Cover 0.60 0.55 0.48 0.32
Human Density 0.52 0.64 0.43 0.20 0.64 0.50 0.63 0.65
Percentage Protected Area 0.46 0.63 0.39 0.19 0.64 0.47 0.62 0.60
Mean Income 0.52 0.67 0.45 0.21 0.63 0.52 0.63 0.64
Population Growth 0.53 0.65 0.45 0.21 NA NA 0.63 0.64