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Passive methods |
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(p-I) |
Ignorance: the policy development process proceeds without an
observable choice regarding the handling of an uncertain aspect |
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(p-RI) |
Recognized Ignorance: the uncertain aspect is identified and
expressed, but a decision is taken without considering other options |
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(p-A) |
Avoidance: uncertainty is avoided by restricting the scope of the
joint frame, e.g., by leaving out or deferring measures of which the
effectiveness and/or feasibility (technical and/or political) are
uncertain |
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Active methods |
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Increase uncertainty tolerance |
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Substantive uncertainty |
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(ts-T) |
Transparency: share information about the origin and quality of
available knowledge and make the acquisition of new knowledge traceable, e.g., by
involving actors in modeling and data collection activities |
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(ts-S) |
Safeguards: work with bandwidths in calculations and communicate
results using orders of magnitude rather than precise figures |
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Process uncertainty |
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(tp-TB) |
Trust Building: increase trust among actors by furthering social
interaction, encouraging information sharing, and emphasizing
interdependencies |
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Reduce uncertainty |
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Substantive uncertainty |
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(rs-KA) |
Knowledge Acquisition: consult experts, study scientific literature,
collect empirical data, perform model-based simulations, analyze and interpret
findings, etc. |
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(rs-EBAK) |
Establishing Best Available Knowledge: discuss rivaling knowledge
and knowledge limitations (qualitative), analyze uncertainty (quantitative), and
make assumptions |
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Process uncertainty |
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rp-P |
Procedures: develop formal rules and procedures that reduce the
actors’ room for unexpected strategic behavior |
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rp-C |
Commitment: involve influential actors who can assume
decision-making authority and emphasize the benefits of reaching an
agreement |