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Scenario 1:
Doñana –
Global Knowledge |
Scenario 2:
Doñana
Trademark |
Scenario 3:
Arid
Doñana |
Scenario 4:
Adaptive Doñana
–
Wet and Creative |
Present situation of the Doñana
social-ecological system |
| |
| Drivers |
|
|
Technology |
Great improvement; desalination plants; green energy;
efficient techniques in agriculture |
Without great improvement; only some to maximize agriculture
production |
Improvement after climate change due to the rise in
investments in green energy |
General improvement; technologies for water efficiency;
green energy; alternative public transport |
Some advances, such as solar panels and efficient methods for
irrigation, are being installed, but slowly |
|
Participation |
Important for management; linked with technologies of information and communication (TICs) |
No real participation |
Not mentioned |
Very important aspect for management; improved through
practice and education |
Becoming more important in Doñana due to
initiatives such as the second plan for sustainable development |
|
Climate change |
Few effects; prevention via technology and
efficiency |
Big effects in medium term |
Major effects over the short term |
Few effects |
People show concern for this theme and value the climate
regulation ecosystem service |
|
Migration |
Immigration due to the good social and ecological
situations |
Emigration due to the bad social and ecological
situations |
Emigration due to unemployment after tourism
decreases |
Immigration controlled at the origin through cooperation and
development |
Immigration is growing fast in the region, attracted by
agriculture |
| Aspects |
|
|
Water |
Better use due to new technologies |
Higher demand and more squandering; contaminated by
agriculture |
Scarce due to the fall in precipitation and the increase in
temperature; use prioritized to the most important uses |
Management core; technology improvements for efficient
use |
Scarce; great demand; management; is a critical aspect
because interest groups demand it (farmers for agriculture and
conservationists for nature) |
|
Biodiversity |
Conserved due to research improvements and
investments |
Falls due to unsustainable uses; “fortified”
Natural Protected Areas |
Decreases due to climate change effects; more protective of
the norm |
Conserved through a mosaic of landscapes |
Tourist and NGO mainly see the importance of endangered flag
species |
|
Agriculture |
Respectful and more productive due to technologic advances |
Intensive farming; monoculture; transgenic;
unsustainable |
Return to dry-farmed crops due to droughts |
Agro-forestry mosaic turning to traditional uses helped by
new technologies |
Important economic sector that employs many workers; slowly
incorporating ecological methods |
|
Tourism |
Sustainable and quality tourism |
Mass tourism |
Great fall due to the effects of climate
change |
Alternative, quality, and sustainable
tourism |
Beach and religious tourism attract more visitors than
nature tourism |
|
Mobility |
Low-impact roads |
Too many roads that fragment the landscape |
No more infrastructure creation due to a decrease in tourism |
Increase in public transportation and dismantling of some
roads |
High demand for new infrastructures for tourism ; scarce
public transport |
| Social actors |
|
|
Businesses and enterprises |
Middle companies and sustainable industrial
policies |
Big, powerful multinationals; no environmental concerns
|
Bad situation due to tourism and agriculture decrease, and
to an increase in unemployment; more environmental concern |
Small, local companies; cooperatives; search for long-term
benefits; more environmental concern |
|
|
ENGOs |
Participate in management and research |
Overwhelmed by the power of companies |
Protagonists after climate change effects; empowerment and
diversification of activities |
Were not mentioned |
ENGO with great importance in the creation of Doñana's
National Park; confronted with the most developmentalist
sectors |
|
Administration |
Benefitting from research; simplified institutions; search
for sustainability |
Loses power to multinationals |
Turn towards sustainability after the effects of climate
change; emergency integrative plans |
Great institutional simplification; sustainability is the
first aim |
Multiple institutions coexisting in the
area |
|
Scientists |
Research in green energy and efficient water use;
calculation of Natural Protected Area carrying capacity |
Oriented to maximize agriculture production |
Increase in activity after the effects of climate change;
construction of agriculture research centers; increase in social science
research |
Research on social ecological systems, green energy, and
efficient water use |
Focus on biological sciences research; local people perceive
them as disconnected with population and local needs |
|
Local population |
Strengthening of traditional local identity; social
cohesion |
Rootlessness due to identity loss; no cohesion; emigration;
counterculture movements grow |
Construction of a new identity to cope with the effects of
climate change |
Strengthened traditional local identity; social cohesion;
higher education and culture; more creativity |
Elder people and those linked to agriculture tend to see
the protected area as a threat to their interest; people linked to tourism see
the protected area as an opportunity for development |