Components I. Business as usual II. Community-based protectionism III. Development and conservation IV. Progress and technology National conjuncture Global and national instability Political and socioeconomic stability Social and political stability Political stability and socioeconomic instability Market dynamics and international treaties Volatile markets without state control Protectionism Economic treaties within alternative commercial alliances in Latin America New international partnerships and trade agreements with EU, USA, Latin American countries Free trade agreement with EU and USA Macroeconomic and sectoral policies Structural Adjustment Programs Absent sectoral policies for rural areas Subsidized social programs and restrictive environmental plans, organic agriculture programs Service-sector development (e.g., tourism), sustainable organic agriculture programs, environmental policies Free competition and economic deregulation External agents Role of state limited to poverty alleviation programs and food relief International funding supports conservation programs and active research institutes International funds promote rural initiatives, e.g. microcredit, and active research institutes Foreign entrepreneurial investment Development initiatives/income sources Agriculture retracts due to global prices/markets for rural commodities Wealth stratification Community /cooperative agropastoral initiatives Few entrepreneurs and little investment Job diversification Product diversification Ecotourism promoted by entrepreneurs Payment for ecosystem services Agroindustrial development Economic growth for commercial ranchers and wealth stratification Local governance Local corruption, lack of transparency, weak trade unions Reinforced local organizations Effective environmental protection, control, and monitoring Reinforced trade unions and partnerships Upgraded systems for monitoring and controlling environmental protection Strong trade unions among commercial ranchers Weak local monitoring and control of environment Distribution of/access to land, natural resources, and capital Progressive land abandonment Proletarization, marginalization Limited access to land and natural resources Land redistribution/regulation (prevalence of small farming systems and household economies) National top-down control for guaranteeing access to/use of natural resources Land regulation, presence of different typologies of commercial and household economies New local arrangements and rules for guaranteeing equal access and use of natural resources Land concentration (deregulated and liberalized land markets) Unequal access to natural resources Land use and management Monofunctional land use (pastoral use) and intensification Agropastoral and dry forest degradation Monofunctional land use (agropastoral use) Expansion of subsistence cultivation systems (traditional and agroecological low external inputs agriculture) and reforestation/ regeneration practices Multifunctional land-use innovations in agropastoral systems management with agroecological semi-intensification (low external inputs agriculture and forest regeneration/ conservation practices) Monofunctional land use (pastoral use) High external inputs agriculture (intensification) Dismantled subsistence systems Labor market Economic stratification and labor exploitation persist, high out-migration Few or moderate opportunities in rural areas New job opportunities in a wide range of agricultural and service sectors Only agrarian workers Few alternative opportunities in mechanized rural economies Social cohesion Low community spirit /workers’ moral Social and political conflicts over land and natural resources Strong community-based protectionism among landless people Collaboration and partnerships among local users and trade unions Competitiveness and individualism deconstruct social ties Culture, values, lifestyle Persistent corruption Resistance to change among local traditional large landowners Youth preference for urban lifestyle Historical coping strategies Strong sense of belonging New rural lifestyle New sense of belonging (e.g., brand and green culture) Weak sense of belonging Urban lifestyle attracts people in rural areas Infrastructure and technology Absence of investment Investments in agricultural extension programs Investment in green management practices (low-input technology) High levels of private investment in technology and infrastructure