Table 1. Historical drivers of change and vulnerability trends.


Multiscale drivers of change Local perception about historical vulnerability trends
Historical period Socioeconomic and political structure Local land tenure, land use, and natural resource management Ecological resilience Individual socioeconomic ability Institutional capacity
 
Circa 1900–1936:
Post-independence period
New agrarian rules

Export-oriented coffee boom (sector of income and job provider)

Polycentric natural resource management (NRM)
Latifundia and patronage system coexist with communitarian system and medium-sized households

• Traditional slash and burn
• Fire management for weed and bush control
• Mixed browsing/grazers
• Transhumance
• High landscape connectedness
• Pastures resilient after shock
• Agro-
biodiversity conservation
• Good soil quality
• Productive diversification (coffee and livestock)
• Land/assets access for household economy
• Socio-
economic exchanges between ecological zones
• Commercial economy growth
• Persistent coping mechanisms
• Strong sense of belonging
• Strong social capital
• Weak centralized institutional systems
 
1936–1979:
Dictatorial regime
1950–1970:
“Capitalist modernization”

• Absence of poverty-alleviation programs
• Coffee crisis
• Export-oriented “livestock boom” production
• Commodity food import
• Technological boom
Political and economic decline started by 1970s
• Migration of landowners
• Dictatorial command-and-control system
Land concentration (“Latifundia” administered by few families

• Introduction of agrochemicals and high-energy and water-intensive crops
• Changes in management of livestock–pasture (e.g., fencing)
• Decreasing native grasses cover due to intensification
• Initial dry forest deforestation
• Progressive soil impoverishment and substitution of crop varieties
• Increasing patronage dependence and household indebtedness
• Increase in wealth-distribution and land-access inequality
• Limited technology and credit access for household economy
• Absence of safety-net programs
• High levels of conflict and confrontation over land, high levels of social and political uncertainty
 
1979–1990:
Socialist period and the contra-revolutionary war
1980–1984:
Socialist state reforms (e.g., nationalization policy, price and food-security programs, agrarian reform)
• Subsidized economy, export oriented
x• Implementation of “Green Revolution” programs
Socialist command-and-control system

1985-1989:
Contra-revolutionary conflict and socioeconomic crisis (e.g. high inflation rate)
1980–1984:
Land redistribution (specialized productive cooperative system)
• Intensified export-oriented agropastoral dairy production and food-oriented high-energy farming systems
• Loss of transhumance
system
1985–1989:
Productive military cooperatives
• Decrease in cattle population and exports
• Land abandonment
• Increasing dry forest degradation and fragmentation
• Transition of native mature grasses to bush and woody cover
• Land and NR access for household economy
• Diffusion of credit and information access for households
• Human capital reinforcement
• Disrupted value-added system production
• Disrupted individual and social networks during the war
• Strong safety-net programs implemented
• Open social conflicts on land and NRM; disrupted social ties and networks during the war
 
1990–2006:
Economic liberalization
Peace accords and democratic elections
• Neoliberal state reforms
(e.g., structural adjustment and poverty-alleviation programs)
• Organizational crisis
• Absence of investment, stagnating economic situation, and uncertainty over International Free Commercial Treaties
• Administrative deconcentration process
• National Development Plan prioritizes agroexports and import of food commodities
• Absence of food-security programs

Contract manufacturing diffusion in urban areas
International conservation funds encouraged new environmental priorities and regulations
Land reallocation schemes (privatized system)
• Minifundia system diffusion
• New rules and mechanisms of management (e.g., comanagement agreement) within protected areas
• Demographic change: Population growth, returns, and refugee resettlement schemes; youth out-migration
• Increasing dry forest patches, fragmentation in some private land areas, and slow recovery of tree density and natural regeneration in other land areas
• Diffusion of A. pennatula
• Landscape fragmentation
• Loss of the financial and material assets
(e.g., land) for household economy and pauperization process
• Loss in human capital (access to schools, health systems, etc.)
• Progressive increase in wealth distribution inequity
• Decrease in investment capacities of commercial economies
• Weak governmental social programs (e.g., for food security)
• Increasing dependence on external aid
• Latent social confrontation and conflict over the control of protected-area management