Fig. 5. (a) Heuristic illustration of trends of vulnerability indicators within the four scenarios, and (b) 3D space representation of the resulting hypothetical pathways from the actual baseline (t=0) to 2030 (adapted from Fraser 2010).

Fig. 5
Notes: (a) Up arrow: better=no reason for specific concern; down arrow: worse=be alert or warming development. Colors and boldness of the line indicate the degree of uncertainty of the trend (red and bold line for high uncertainty, green and fine line for low uncertainty). (b) If the trends toward opposite directions have different degrees of uncertainty, the arrow depicts a trend with low uncertainty. If the trends toward opposite directions have the same degree of uncertainty, this results in no change of direction from the baseline.