Fig. 4. Three possible future scenarios for Iowa agroecosystems were developed from workshop themes: tweak (4a), adapt (4b), and transform (4c). Scenarios were all built upon the same heuristic model (Fig. 3), but differ in their prioritization of different systemic relationships (gray arrows represent normal relationships; darker arrows represent relationships that are prioritized in a given scenario). In “tweak” (4a), macroscale forces were seen as driving regional outcomes, but beyond regional control. This scenario also omits certain relationships that were seen as being impractical or of little importance by proponents of this scenario. In “adapt” (4b), policies, partnerships, and programs are based on understanding regional social-ecological complexity and are designed to achieve desired multiobjective outcomes. “Transform” (4c) recognizes regional social-ecological system complexity and focuses on directly influencing powerful top-down drivers to catalyze and equip new markets that have the power to reorient the regional system to a desired configuration.

Fig. 4