Table 1. Future scenarios for the Montafon region – common positive and negative scenarios extracted from 3 scenario pairs carried out by 3 local stakeholder teams.


Positive scenario Negative scenario
Framing conditions
Climate change Distinctive four-seasons-climate. More extreme weather events, less snow, too wet summers, too dry summers.
Tourism trends Establishing high quality tourism, culture tourism, and eco-tourism. Acknowledgment of culture and landscape, prioritization on summer tourism, longer tourist stays. Declining quality tourism and increasing mass tourism, establishment of a „mega party“-image. Declining duration of overnight- stays, growing number of holiday homes.
Agricultural policy Continuing of the current agro-subsidizing system. Support of organic farming, subsidizing protection forests, strengthening regional relations and product chains, quality promotion – products & landscape, promoting sustainability. Mass production - instead of quality production funding, loss of cattle ranching funding leads indoor cattle breeding, zero-grazing and thus less landscape preservation) increase of free competition leads to a decline of small scale farming, genetic engineering endangers organic production habits.
Local elements
Population Motivation to stay and work in the valley, regeneration of the societal structure, population growth, establishment of two or three generation households, preservation of the village infrastructure with own municipality council and mayor, preschools, schools, local brass band, church choir, fire brigade. Increased emigration and fewer children leads to aging societies, future multinational immigration (secondary residences, elderly homes, holiday apartments) leads to decline of local resident population, loss of local society cohesion and loss of rural infrastructure demands.
Tourism Establishment of a balanced summer and winter tourism. Support of a controlled tourism (walking along trails, nature conservation), appreciation and consumption of local products to gain added value, focus on quality tourism. Growing "mega-party"-tourism, declining interest of young local people in tourism business.
Economy, workplaces The region is established as economic location, diversification increases, small trade businesses and craft businesses are protected, number high quality jobs increases, and number of tourism workplaces is stabilized. Strict profit-oriented development, dependence from single branches, business closure and emigration, big retail chains force small local shops to close.
Settlements Support of the villages as habitation, village centres are established as centres of local life, terraced housing reduces housing area demand.
Main residence status of local inhabitants is preserved, new attractions for youth and families will be established.
Settlement expansion by too many single family houses leads to reduction of open space and less social coherence.
Transformation of secondary residences as main residences outnumbers local population.
Traffic Less commuter traffic through new jobs in the valley, local public transport extended, traffic calmed areas erected, cycle path network established, traffic bypass via tunnel. Loss/reduction of public transport infrastructure, and decline of local job numbers lead to increasing commuting rates and individual transport.
Agriculture Preservation of small structured farming and protection of young successors in (secondary occupation) - farming. Farm work is judged as important and attractive. Loss of small-scale farming structure reduces local landscape caring potential. Abandonment of land in middle elevation ranges leads to re-forestation:
Environment and nature Conservation of biodiversity and resources provided, no opening of untouched landscapes; environmental awareness in all heads. Landscape patchiness and biological diversity decreases (e.g., rich meadows instead of less fertile grassland), forests expand and reduce open space, resources get lost, opening up of additional pasture areas for skiing.
Landscape Traditional cultural landscape is preserved, scenic landscape is secured. Forest expansion leads to "dark, monotonous landscapes", removal of landscape elements reduces biodiversity, built-up areas and sealing of land reduces attractiveness of the valley floors.
Arts and culture Encouraging of regional cultural initiatives to establish a rich offering of local cultural amenities. Provision of infrastructure for local cultural events, central culture event marketing. Art and cultural goods are accepted and demanded. Cultural identity gets lost: decline of clubs and societies, traditional costume, old knowledge and habits get lost: local identity, local history.