Fig. 2. Bayesian network of the Upper Guadiana basin at aquifer-scale (Zorrilla 2009). “G and light blue” variables refer to groundwater; “I and blue” represent irrigation variables; “C and light green” variables correspond to climate; “S and brown” variables represent socio-economic scenarios; “L and green” variables relate to irrigated land; and “D and yellow” variables represent rain-fed agriculture. Appendix 1 provides a full representation of the aquifer-scale Bayesian network.