Table 2. Definitions of the most important scenario terminology used in this paper.

Scenario term Definition
Driver Any natural or human-induced factor that directly or indirectly causes a change.
Scenario assumptions A coherent and internally consistent set of principles about key drivers and relationships, which can consist of both narrative storylines and trends of key drivers.
Scenario logic The conceptual framework to structure alternative scenarios based on the most important and uncertain drivers.
Scenario (outcome) A plausible image of the future, based on the qualitative or quantitative interpretation of a set of scenario assumptions, which can be presented as narrative storylines or quantitative figures and maps.
Storyline A qualitative description of the future that can be used to describe both scenario assumptions and scenario outcomes. Storylines are often narratives but could also be images or animations.