APPENDIX 1. Supporting online material (code for population model for WinBugs) Appendix 1. Code for population model for WinBugs. The data used to model the effectiveness of tunnels for Burramys parvus are available from Dean Heinze upon request. model { tau[1] <- 1 / (SE[1] * SE[1]) # precision of the estimate in year 1 # precision = 1/variance A[1] ~ dnorm(F[1], tau[1]) # initial population size for (i in 2:22) # for each subsequent year { F[i] ~ dnorm(A[i], tau[i]) # estimate population size deviates from actual tau[i] <- 1/(SE[i]*SE[i]) # precision of estimate A[i] ~ dpois(pred[i]) # actual population size drawn from Poisson pred[i] <- A[i-1] * exp(a + bF*A[i-1] + bS*SR[i-1] + ann[i]) # Ricker model ann[i] ~ dnorm(0, t) # normal deviate representing environmental variation } ev <- 1/sqrt(t) # standard deviation for environmental variation # vague priors t ~ dgamma(0.001, 0.001) # precision of env. variation a ~ dnorm(0, 1.0E-6) # intercept of Ricker model bF ~ dnorm(0, 1.0E-6) # effect of density dependence bS ~ dunif(0, 1) # effect of sex ratio } ADD DATA HERE END