Table 5. Implications for small-scale water system investments in the different scenarios. The table shows some technological, environmental, economic, and social issues that are relevant for successful investments in small-scale water system technologies in the different scenarios. Agricultural advance Managing on the margins Community cohesion Industry imperial Technology Water system innovations very important Individually managed small-scale technologies independent of the need for increased community involvement Investors to decide to who to target: market-oriented farmers or more marginalized groups. This affects staple or cash crop focus, and what kind of technologies are suitable. Focus on technologies with capacity to bridge dry spells and stabilize cereal production Focus on individual solutions Water system innovations for livestock Risk for maladaptation due to climate change Water system innovations are important in both staple- and cash-crop production Coordinate with organic farming practices with potential to develop “niche market” for organic products Can include broader range of technologies including individual as well as community solutions Water system innovations have limited relevance, except for in the highlands’ vegetable production systems Larger-scale irrigation that provides employment rather than subsistence might become relevant Environment Upstream–downstream implications from increasing water withdrawal and nutrient or pesticide leakage Expansion of cultivated areas—reserves and protected areas might be needed Potential for PES and water credit schemes Projects need to include a land-restoration component to deal with land degradation and target the feedback between declining on-farm productivity and declining productivity of the surrounding resource base Sustained capacity for agroecological productivity Potential for sustainable intensification of agriculture, where both food and other ecosystem services are generated Opportunities for “European” type of landscape protection, where traditional production system and small-scale technologies are valued and protected Economy Potential to link projects (if business focus) with marketing and business skills Potential development of markets for ecosystem services Potential to work with food-processing enterprises? Limited economic opportunities Focus on investments with low initial costs to avoid maladaptations Economic potential of tourist industry for organic produce and niche products Marketing skills need to be improved Economic potential for highland vegetable growers Marketing skills need to be improved Social factors Individual focus needed because it would be difficult to force community initiatives Potential for specifically targeting entrepreneurs and other key individuals Focus on building social capital OR finding individual entrepreneurs Potential to use local groups and NGOs to enter the area and for disseminating knowledge (e.g., already existing farmer learning groups) and for long-term impact Target specific groups that will farm in the future (such as retired people in the highlands engaged in small-scale vegetable production)