Table 5. Implications for small-scale water system investments in the different scenarios. The table shows some technological, environmental, economic, and social issues that are relevant for successful investments in small-scale water system technologies in the different scenarios.

Agricultural advance Managing on the margins Community cohesion Industry imperial
Technology Water system innovations very important
Individually managed small-scale technologies independent of the need for increased community involvement
Investors to decide to who to target: market-oriented farmers or more marginalized groups. This affects staple or cash crop focus, and what kind of technologies are suitable.
Focus on technologies with capacity to bridge dry spells and stabilize cereal production
Focus on individual solutions
Water system innovations for livestock
Risk for maladaptation due to climate change
Water system innovations are important in both staple- and cash-crop production
Coordinate with organic farming practices with potential to develop “niche market” for organic products
Can include broader range of technologies including individual as well as community solutions
Water system innovations have limited relevance, except for in the highlands’ vegetable production systems
Larger-scale irrigation that provides employment rather than subsistence might become relevant
Environment Upstream–downstream implications from increasing water withdrawal and nutrient or pesticide leakage
Expansion of cultivated areas—reserves and protected areas might be needed
Potential for PES and water credit schemes
Projects need to include a land-restoration component to deal with land degradation and target the feedback between declining on-farm productivity and declining productivity of the surrounding resource base Sustained capacity for agroecological productivity
Potential for sustainable intensification of agriculture, where both food and other ecosystem services are generated
Opportunities for “European” type of landscape protection, where traditional production system and small-scale technologies are valued and protected
Economy Potential to link projects (if business focus) with marketing and business skills
Potential development of markets for ecosystem services
Potential to work with food-processing enterprises?
Limited economic opportunities
Focus on investments with low initial costs to avoid maladaptations
Economic potential of tourist industry for organic produce and niche products
Marketing skills need to be improved
Economic potential for highland vegetable growers
Marketing skills need to be improved
Social factors Individual focus needed because it would be difficult to force community initiatives
Potential for specifically targeting entrepreneurs and other key individuals
Focus on building social capital OR finding individual entrepreneurs Potential to use local groups and NGOs to enter the area and for disseminating knowledge (e.g., already existing farmer learning groups) and for long-term impact Target specific groups that will farm in the future (such as retired people in the highlands engaged in small-scale vegetable production)