Table 4. Scenario contrasts. The first column lists nine themes that were common for all scenarios. The table shows the main differences between the scenarios according to these themes.

Agricultural advance Managing on the margins Community cohesion Industry imperial
Main income sources Agriculture (cash crops and bio-fuels), food processing, petty trading Subsistence farming, livestock keeping, logging, charcoal making, beekeeping, remittances Small-scale farming (also organic), livestock, ecotourism, handicrafts Mining, cement and tile industries, office jobs, transport, petty trading, tourism
Local economy Better economy, but increased inequality No change for most, some people worse off as harvests fail, only better for a few A bit better for most people Economic growth, but capital leaves the area
Economic stratification
External change agents
(The role of national and local governments vs. other actors such as NGOs and foreign investors)
Good investment climate and subsidized agricultural inputs make Tanzanian businessmen start food-processing industries and bio-fuel production in the area Local officials neglect their duties
No efforts made by central government to help local communities cope with drought or fight corruption
NGOs have a reactive rather than proactive role, focusing on, e.g., relief food
Local government helps initiate community groups, supported by NGOs
Foreign-owned ecotourism hotel run in cooperation with community group
Good economy has connected Makanya to the world, Chinese and Kenyan industries become important
Local government is bypassed by investors, over time it loses influence
Source of development initiatives Individual, but cooperatives emerge for bio-fuel production Entrepreneurs leave farming and start new businesses, raising mixed feelings among other villagers Community initiatives, small self-help groups and credit schemes New projects proposed by companies rather than local people or local groups
Social cohesion / inequality Growing inequality, everyone cannot keep up with the rapid development, aggravated by competition over land Low community spirit / working morale
Fewer children from poor families in school leads to increasing inequality
Good community spirit, people work together during crisis years, but group work benefits some more than others There is a clear difference between those who can influence their work situation and those who work in mines and factories
Values Traditional values are nurtured, but modernization occurs anyway People strongly object to the stratification that occurs Traditional family values important, but people are open to modernization as long as it is equitable Young people adopt a more modern life style, elderly people lose authority
Infra-structure Much better roads and housing Only slowly improving Local road is improving due to ecotourism project Much better roads, computers and phones common, improved but stratified housing
Population Population growth (some in-migration, less out-migration), labor available Out-migration for irrigated agriculture -> declining population and lack of labor Slowly growing, but young people still move to urban areas if they can Increasing movements, both in and out-migration, fewer people per household
Agroecological conditions
(Extent of cultivated areas, agricultural production systems, environmental health)
The cultivated area increases substantially
Mechanized cash-crop production, increasing use of inputs
Homogenization of land use, pesticide residues in water, decreasing forest and bush cover
The cultivated area decreases
Small-scale subsistence farming relying on traditional practices
Depleting farming methods, and problems with land degradation following overextraction of ecosystem services such as fodder, timber, and charcoal
The cultivated area increases
Subsistence farming with an increasing cash-crop component due to new small-scale technologies
Organic farming movement and less-depleting practices
Community forest reserve
The cultivated area decreases, with the exception of the highlands where irrigated vegetable production still takes place
Less environmental impact from farming, but problems associated with industrialization
National Park established in the highlands