Table 5A. Indicators of climate change trends. River basin Observed temperature trends Observed precipitation trends Observed snow and glacier dynamics Amudarya Upper catchment† (Tajikistan): temperature increases of 0.7–1.2°C in the valleys, 0.1–0.7°C at high altitudes Lower catchment‡ (Turkmenistan): small increase of about 0.5°C Seasonal redistribution of precipitation, mostly an increase at higher altitudes, increase in extremes at lower altitudes Change in type of precipitation (hard vs. liquid) Glacier degradation: 14% decrease from 1957 to 1980§ Snow stock†: 35% increase on average at altitudes up to 2000 m, 35% decrease at altitudes of 2000–3500 m (not in all regions)   Elbe (German part) 1.1°C increase in temperature during the last 50 yr| 46 mm decrease in summer precipitation, 50 mm increase in winter precipitation during the last 50 yr| No observations   Guadiana Average maximum temperatures stable in the upper basin¶ Average temperatures increased by 1.8°C from 1950–1975 to 1975–2002 7% decrease in the last two decades over the period 1950–2002 in the upper basin¶ Not applicable Orange South Africa: average temperature increase of 0.2°C during 1990s# Namibia: increase of 1.15°C between 1950 and 2000†† Botswana: increasing trend of about 1°C over period 1900–1990‡‡ South Africa, Botswana: no overall trend††,‡‡ Namibia: extremely high variation in rainfall in excess of 30% across country, rising to 70% in southern areas†† Snow is common in the Lesotho portion of the basin, but data not accessible Rhine 1°C temperature increase during the last century§§ During the 20th century, winter precipitation has increased by about 10–20%. No significant trend in summer precipitation detected§§ Switzerland: since 1850 the surface covered by glaciers has decreased from 1800 to 1300 km². The volume has decreased from 107 to 74 km³|| Tisza Temperature increase of about 1°C during the last 50 yr¶¶ Upward trend in precipitation in Ukrainian part Downward trend in precipitation in Hungarian part## No glacier environments in the basin     Table 5B. Projected climate scenarios for these basins. River basin Change in temperature Change in precipitation Amudarya Upper catchment†: increase of 1.8–2.9°C by 2050 Lower catchment‡: increase of 1–2°C by 2030 Increase in temperature extremes. Both an increase (3%–26%) and a decrease (3%–5%) are projected by different models by 2050† Change in distribution of precipitation.   Elbe (German part) Increase of 1.5°C by 2051–2055 compared with 1961–1990 (model STAR)| Small decrease of 5.6 mm according to model STAR by 2051–2055 compared with 1961–1990|   Guadiana Worst case scenario: increase of 1–2°C in winter and 4–5°C in summer by 2070††† Worst case scenario: decrease up to 0.25 mm/d in winter and 0.5 mm/d in summer by 2070†††   Orange South Africa: average increase of 2.5–3°C over north-central parts by 2050§§§ Namibia: 2–6°C above 1961–1990 mean by 2100†† Lesotho: 1.2–4.4°C increase by 2075‡‡‡ Botswana: 1–3°C increase by 2050‡‡ South Africa, Lesotho, Botswana: Different models project increases up to 5%–10% and decreases up to 10%–25%.§§§,‡‡‡,‡‡ Namibia: decrease of up to 200 mm/yr less than current average††   Rhine Increase of 1.0–2.0°C by 2050||| Increase of about 14% in winter precipitation by 2050, depending on temperature increase|||   Tisza Increase of 0.7–2.5°C by 2050¶¶¶ Increase of up to 30% in the Carpathians Decrease of ~10%–30% in the spring period in Hungary and Ukraine by 2050¶¶¶

†Republic of Tajikistan (2002) ‡MNPT (1999) §Dukhovny (2002) |Hattermann et al., (2006) ¶Martínez-Santos et al. (2004) #Department of Environmental Affairs and Tourism (1999) ††Tarr (2002) ‡‡MWTCB (2001) §§Klein Tank (2004) ||Maisch et al. (1997) ¶¶IPCC (2007) ##Jolonkai and Pataki (2005) †††MMA (2005) ‡‡‡Ministry of Natural Resources (2000) §§§Turpie et al. (2002) |||Hurk et al. (2006) ¶¶¶MPI (2006)