Fig. 3. Predicted risk of HP-H5N1 introduction from countries that have had H5N1 outbreaks (in blue). (ac) Risk was estimated as number of infectious bird days caused by trade in: live poultry with no trade restrictions (a), live poultry with no exports from countries reporting H5N1 in poultry (b), and captive wild birds with no exports from countries reporting H5N1 in poultry (c) as in b. (d) Estimated number of ducks, geese, and swans migrating between mainland continents, number of infectious bird days, and number of species (in parentheses). Reproduced from Kilpatrick et al. (2006).