Fig. 2. Example prediction of HP-H5N1 occurrences in poultry in Nigeria (Williams et al. 2008). Dotted circles indicate 72 occurrences in January-November 2006 that were used to train the model. Model predictions are summarized as a ramp of colors, ranging from white (all replicate models agreed in predicting absence) to red (all replicate models agreed in predicting potential for presence). Yellow squares indicate independent occurrences from November 2006-January 2007 that were used to test the model predictions. Note the close correspondence between the spatial position of these occurrences and the red areas, which was statistically significantly better than random.