Table 4. The results of model fit. Parameter Model A† Model B‡ Number of crisis cases 82 82 Degrees of freedom 4 4 Chi-square 4.049 3.702 Model P 0.339 0.448 Degrees of freedom/chi-square 1.012 0.926 Comparative fit index 0.998 1.000 Root mean square error of approximation (90% confidence interval) 0.012 (0.000–0.169) 0.000 (0.000–0.162) Akaike information criterion§ 50.049 65.702 †The baseline model. ‡The model in which crisis surprise is controlled. §To compare models, a smaller Akaike information criterion indicates better fit.