

Parameter 
Model A† 
Model B‡ 

Number of crisis cases 
82 
82 
Degrees of freedom 
4 
4 
Chisquare 
4.049 
3.702 
Model P 
0.339 
0.448 
Degrees of freedom/chisquare 
1.012 
0.926 
Comparative fit index 
0.998 
1.000 
Root mean square error of approximation (90% confidence interval) 
0.012 (0.000–0.169) 
0.000 (0.000–0.162) 
Akaike information criterion§ 
50.049 
65.702 


†The baseline model.
‡The model in which crisis surprise is controlled.
§To compare models, a smaller Akaike information criterion indicates better fit.