Fig. 2. (A) Urban area in 1978, 1992, and 1998. (B) Observed spatial growth pattern from 1978 to 1992. (C) Random spatial growth pattern for a growth surface of 3000 m used to select cells with no growth for the binary response variable of the logistic regression model. The random growth pattern was created by dividing the area with urban growth between 1978 and 1992 into fragments smaller than 150 cells (13.5 ha) and distributing them randomly without overlap within an area < 3000 m from the 1978 city perimeter, i.e., the potential urban growth surface. (D) Random spatial growth pattern for a growth surface of 500 m. The random growth pattern was created analogously to that in (C) using a maximum distance of 500 m from the 1978 city perimeter.