Table 1. Main assumptions and results in the model about drivers of ecosystem change in each scenario.
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|
Global Orchestration
|
Technogarden
|
Order from
Strength
|
Adapting Mosaic
|
| |
World population
(billions)
|
Lowest 2000: 6.1
2050: 8.2
2100: 6.9
|
Medium 2000: 6.1
2050: 8.9
2100: 8.7
|
Highest 2000: 6.1
2050: 9.7
2100: 10.6
|
High 2000: 6.1
2050: 9.6
2100: 9.9
|
Income
(average annual GDP
pc growth rate: 2000–2100)
|
Highest (2.5%)
|
High (2.3%)
|
Low (1.2%)
|
Medium (1.8%)
|
Global GHG emissions (GtC-eq)
|
High2000: 9.8
2050: 25.6
2100: 19.5
|
Low2000: 9.8
2050: 7.1
2100: 5.5
|
High2000: 9.8
2050: 20.3
2100: 25.2
|
Medium2000: 9.8
2050: 18.0
2100: 16.0
|
Global average mean temperature increase (ºC)
|
High2000: 0.6
2050: 2.0
2100: 3.5
|
Low2000: 0.6
2050: 1.5
2100: 1.9
|
High2000: 0.6
2050: 1.7
2100: 3.3
|
Medium2000: 0.6
2050: 1.9
2100: 3.0
|
Per capita food consumption
|
High
|
High
|
Low
|
Low
|
Agricultural Yield
change
|
High
|
Medium-high
|
Low
|
Medium
|
|
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|