Table 1. Well-being and ecosystem services vary substantially over these four scenarios, which differ according to their evolution of policies, ecosystem services, and institutions.

Global orchestration. Free trade and a good heart reign in this scenario. There is a determined effort to fight poverty and inequality. As a result, there is a huge boost in food and other provisioning services in developing countries. However, the general approach to ecosystem services is reactive, rather than preventative. The costs are borne by regulating services—such as climate change—and a loss in cultural services.
Order from strength. The world fragments into regional markets and alliances. Nations are obsessed with security issues, and the tragedy of the commons deepens. Most categories of ecosystem services decline, especially in developing countries.
TechnoGarden. This is a globally connected world, with abundant green technology, and a focus on preventing ecosystem problems. Food and other provisions increase, although they are not maximized. Climate change, floods, and disease are of less concern. Biodiversity continues to decline.
Adapting mosaic. The emphasis here is on local solutions. Regional politicians and institutions focus on watershed-scale ecosystems to maximize benefits and prevent problems. If it catches on widely, it pays off. Every type of ecosystem service improves in both developing and industrialized nations.