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Evaluation of Bayesian Networks in Participatory Water Resources Management, Upper Guadiana Basin, Spain

Pedro Zorrilla, Department of Geodynamics, Faculty of Geological Sciences, Complutense University of Madrid, Spain
Gema Carmona, Technical University of Madrid, Department of Agricultural Economics, Spain
África De la Hera, Area of Active Processes and Environmental Quality, Department of Research and Geoscientific Prospective, Geological Survey of Spain (IGME), Spain
Consuelo Varela-Ortega, Technical University of Madrid, Department of Agricultural Economics, Spain
Pedro Martínez-Santos, Department of Geodynamics, Faculty of Geological Sciences, Complutense University of Madrid, Spain
John Bromley, Oxford University School of Geography and the Environment, Centre for Water Research, United Kingdom
Hans Jorgen Henriksen, Geological Survey of Denmark and Greenland (GEUS), Copenhagen, Denmark

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Abstract

Stakeholder participation is becoming increasingly important in water resources management. In participatory processes, stakeholders contribute by putting forward their own perspective, and they benefit by enhancing their understanding of the factors involved in decision making. A diversity of modeling tools can be used to facilitate participatory processes. Bayesian networks are well suited to this task for a variety of reasons, including their ability to structure discussions and visual appeal. This research focuses on developing and testing a set of evaluation criteria for public participation. The advantages and limitations of these criteria are discussed in the light of a specific participatory modeling initiative. Modeling work was conducted in the Upper Guadiana Basin in central Spain, where uncontrolled groundwater extraction is responsible for wetland degradation and conflicts between farmers, water authorities, and environmentalists. Finding adequate solutions to the problem is urgent because the implementation of the EU Water Framework Directive requires all aquatic ecosystems to be in a “good ecological state” within a relatively short time frame. Stakeholder evaluation highlights the potential of Bayesian networks to support public participation processes.

Key words

Bayesian networks; decision support system; evaluation; groundwater management; Guadiana Basin; participatory modeling; Spain; water management; water use conflicts
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Ecology and Society. ISSN: 1708-3087